Hello October! Fall is here, and with it, Metro Vancouver’s real estate market is shifting. Recent mortgage rate cuts had many of us watching for signs of renewed demand, but last month’s numbers show a market where buyers still have the upper hand. Let’s dive into what’s happening—and what it means if you’re thinking of buying or selling this season.
The Sales Story in September
In Metro Vancouver, September was quieter than expected. Home sales declined by 3.8% year over year, with 1,852 homes sold—down from 1,926 in 2023 and a solid 26% below the 10-year average. So, while some of us hoped rate reductions would bring more buyers back into the fold, the reality is that many are still holding back, keeping demand lower than usual.
Andrew Lis from the GVR pointed out that this low sales trend has been going on for a few years now. Even so, there’s some optimism that sales will pick up by year’s end. I’m with him on that—if rates keep falling, I think we’ll see demand pick up before too long.
Rising Inventory = More Choices for Buyers
What stands out in September’s numbers is the bump in inventory. We’ve got 6,144 new listings—a 12.8% jump over last year. This has pushed active listings to 14,932, a 31.2% increase from September 2023, and it’s well above the long-term average.
This increase in inventory means buyers have more choices than we’ve seen in quite a while, making it an ideal time to explore the market if you’re thinking about getting in. The sales-to-active listings ratio is sitting at 12.8%—just on the cusp of what we call a “buyer’s market.” Detached homes are lower, at 9.1%, with attached homes and apartments holding stronger. Historically, when the ratio dips below 12%, prices tend to soften, so if you’re a buyer, you’re in a great position.
Price Trends in a Softer Market
With more inventory and slightly lower demand, prices have started to come down a bit. The benchmark price for all residential properties is now $1,179,700, down 1.8% from last year and 1.4% from August. Here’s a breakdown by property type:
- Detached Homes: Benchmark price at $2,022,200, showing a slight uptick from last year but down 1.3% from August.
- Apartments: Benchmark price is $762,000, down 0.8% over both the year and month.
- Attached Homes: Benchmark price is $1,099,200, down 0.5% from last year and 1.8% from August.
These modest declines mean buyers have a chance to explore some price flexibility. If you’re a seller, it’s more about positioning—buyers are out there, but they’re looking for properties with strong value. Homes in prime locations or with unique features still hold their appeal, especially in neighborhoods like Kitsilano and Whistler.
Looking Ahead
With two more rate decisions coming up, further cuts could be the catalyst that nudges hesitant buyers back into the market. Lis pointed out that many are still holding off, but the inventory we’re seeing now means they’ll have options when they’re ready to jump in. If more buyers re-enter the market this fall, we could see sales volume increase to balance out the high inventory.
Navigating this market requires more than just knowing the stats; it’s about understanding what’s happening behind the numbers. At The Next Door team, we’re here to help you see the opportunities and get the best outcome whether you’re buying or selling. We know this market, and we’re always here to chat—just reach out!